Housing Market to Stabilize in 2007?

After months of sharp declines, housing starts exhibited faint signs of revival last month. According to the U.S. Census Bureau's report on Dec. 19, total starts edged up 6.7% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.59 million units.

Housing starts rose for the last time in September; May and January also saw small increases. The November news — though far from momentous — offsets the grim mood set in October, when starts on new homes plummeted 14.6% to 1.49 million, the lowest level in more than six years.

Why the sudden adjustment? "The economic indicators — interest rates, energy prices, income — are all pretty good, and the consumer fear of a long price decline is subsiding," says Gopal Ahluwalia, head of research economics for the National Association of Home Builders.

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Dealing with a 20% Down Payment

Home buyers may now need to pull out their calculators when tackling a common dilemma: what to do if they don't have enough money for a 20% down payment.   In recent years, piggyback loans, low-cost and easy to get, have been the product of choice for many cash-strapped consumers eager to purchase homes. But with short-term interest rates now sharply higher — currently above 8% — piggyback loans are less appealing. Now, there are signs that some borrowers are giving traditional private mortgage insurance a second look.

New federal tax legislation expected to be signed by President Bush today gives some consumers even more reason to turn to mortgage insurance. The new law makes the insurance premiums tax deductible for some borrowers who take out new mortgage-insurance contracts in 2007. That is in addition to the tax deduction homeowners can already take on the mortgage interest they pay.  

Find out what to do if you can't make a 20% down payment on a home…

Housing Market Analysis

The Commerce Department reported that housing construction rose by 6.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.588 million units.  However, as with the inflation report, analysts said the overall number was misleading and not an indication that the severe slump in housing was coming to an end.

They noted that the rebound followed an even bigger 13.7 percent drop in October. Even with the November gain, housing construction was 25.5 percent below the level of a year ago.  And applications for building permits, considered a good indication of future construction activity, fell for a 10th consecutive month, dropping 3 percent to an annual rate of 1.506 million units.

"Great weather and an abysmal October probably played more of a role in the construction rebound than a firming of the market," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, said he believed the country was about two-thirds of the way through a severe housing correction that has already lowered overall economic growth by more than 1 percentage point. The correction has forced builders to lay off thousands of construction workers and offer attractive incentives to move homes already built.   Zandi said, "Most of 2007 will be another tough year for anyone in the housing industry."

Home Builders See Bottom of Housing Slump

The year-long slump in the housing market may be near a bottom, say home builders - though it could take a while before prices rebound.

Toll Brothers (Charts) reported a sharp drop in fiscal fourth quarter earnings early Tuesday and forecast a big drop in profits for the coming year. But despite that bad news, chairman and CEO Robert Toll said that the market for new homes may finally be leveling off after more than a year's worth of declines.

"Fifteen months into the current slowdown, we may be seeing a floor in some markets where deposits and traffic, although erratic from week to week, seem to be dancing on the bottom or slightly above," said Toll in a statement accompanying the earnings report. "The metro D.C. suburbs of northern Virginia, which was the first market in which we saw activity slow, seems to have stabilized, although at levels much lower than those we have enjoyed over the past few years."

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Existing Home Sales Falling in 2007

According to the National Association of Realtors, next year will likely bring a second annual decline in existing home sales.

Sales of existing homes are expected to decline 8.6 percent to 6.47 million for 2006 and contract another 1 percent to 6.40 million units next year. Still, the housing sector should see a rebound by the end of next year, said David Lereah, the association's chief economist.

"By the fourth quarter of 2007, existing-home sales will be 4.6 percent higher than the current quarter," Lereah said.   Sales of new homes should fall a sharp 17.7 percent this year and another 9.4 percent next year, the Realtors said.

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